WEEK 9 NFL TRENDS

Week 9 of the NFL is upon us. Here are some great betting trends... Courtesy of Pregame.com :

22 Most Impressive Vegas Trends
(ATS = against the spread; covered means covered the spread)

49ers have lost only 7 of last 23 games against the spread

Bengals (-11 hosting Jags): only 8th time Cincinnati double digit favorites since 1990

Bengals at home during regular season: 12-1 ATS

Broncos favored for 37th time out of last 38 games

Browns: first time ever favored by 5+ points a third straight game (data goes back 25 years)

Cardinals: lost only 3 of last 16 games against the spread

Chargers playing non-division opponent (under Coach McCoy): lost only 3 of last 16 against the spread

Chiefs (-9.5 hosting Jets): Most points Kansas City favored by since 2003

Chiefs as home favorite: 6-20 ATS
Colts only team this season with 6 against the spread covers

Colts off a loss: 14-1 ATS the next game

Colts vs. teams with losing record: 14-3 ATS

Cowboys as home favorite: covered only 7 of last 28

Dolphins as a home favorite: 10-36 ATS (back to 2003)

Jets have covered only one game this season (least in NFL)

Patriots (+3 hosting Denver): Biggest home underdog for New England since 2005

Patriots as underdog (during Belichick era): 39-21 ATS

Patriots – road team in New England games has covered only 7 of last 26 games

Raiders – NFL winless underdogs (week 6 or later): 63% ATS (97-57-5 since 2003)

Seahawks (-15 hosting Oakland): Biggest favorite ever for team with 4-3 record (data goes back 25 years)

Seahawks at home (with Russell Wilson at QB): 19-2 straight-up (15-6 ATS)

Steelers (+1 hosting Ravens): first time since 1991 Pittsburgh a home underdog for a second straight game

HOUSTON vs LOS ANGELES - October 28, 2014

In the last of two nationally televised opening night NBA games, the Houston Rockets will travel to the Staples Center to take on the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Houston Rockets are coming off a season that saw them win 54 games and lose in the first round of the playoffs. While the regular season results were encouraging, the first round playoff exit against Portland certainly was not.

Houston had a disappointing offseason, one that saw them lose F Chandler Parsons to Dallas and miss out on prying All-Star F Chris Bosh away from the Miami Heat. F Trevor Ariza and G Jason Terry were brought in to provide some experience and leadership. Depth could be an issue for this team and it’s likely that they take a small step backward in season two of the James Harden and Dwight Howard pairing.

The Los Angeles Lakers would love to forget about last season. It was a season that saw the Lakers decimated by injuries and win just 27 games. Los Angeles had players miss 319 games last season, and aging guards Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash combine to play in only 21 games.

This offseason the Lakers replaced former coach Mike D’antoni with former Los Angeles Lakers guard Byron Scott. Scott understands the Lakers culture of championships but has not had great success as a head coach. Los Angeles lost F Pau Gasol in free agency to the Chicago Bulls. However, the team added Carlos Boozer, Ed Davis, Jeremy Lin, and drafted F Julius Randle with the 7th overall selection. If Kobe returns to play at an elite level, it’s conceivable that he could carry this roster to a playoff berth. 

PICK: HOUSTON ROCKETS -6

This is a tough match-up for Kobe and the Lakers right out of the gate. James Harden is one of the best two guards in the league and Houston has had recent success playing under the bright lights of Los Angeles. Nick Young will be out of the Lakers as he recovers from surgery for a torn ligament in his right thumb. Houston Rockets win and cover ATS in a BLOWOUT!!!

NFL WEEK 8 BETTING TRENDS

Week 8 – Situational Trends

Since 2004, teams that played the previous Thursday night game and are home favorites the following week are: 30-18 (63% ATS).

Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-6) vs. Bears and Jets (-3) vs. Bills.

All-time, teams that have covered against-the-spread five straight games and are road favorites are: 24-19 (56% ATS).

Games Matching this Criteria: Colts (-3) @ Steelers.

Since 2004, teams that lost by 21 or more points and are dogs the next week are: 175-140-9 (56% ATS).

Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+3.5) vs. Lions and Panthers (+5) vs. Seahawks.

NFL Trends – Week 8

TeamSpreadTrend

AZ-2.5 vs. PHI Since 2004, the Cardinals as home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 11-5-2 (69% ATS).

ATL+3.5 vs. DET Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as road/neutral site dogs are 14-18 (44% ATS).

BAL+1.5 @ CIN Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as road dogs of 3 or fewer points are 11-6-3 (65% ATS).

BUF+3 @ NYJ All-time, teams that are dogs against opponents that have lost six games in a row are 22-13-1 (63% ATS).

CAR+5 vs. SEA Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as home dogs are 4-7 (36% ATS).

CHI+6 @ NE Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as dogs of 3 or more points are 14-21 (40% ATS).

CIN-1.5 vs. BAL All-time, against Baltimore at home, the Bengals are 11-7 (61% ATS).

CLE-7 vs. OAK All-time, the Browns as favorites of 7 or more points are 17-25 (41% ATS).

DAL-9.5 vs. WAS Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as favorites of 9 or more points are 9-13 (41% ATS).

DEN-7.5 vs. SD In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as favorites of 7 or more points are 15-7-2 (68% ATS).

DET-3.5 @ ATL In all London games, the designated away team has been favored in 8 of 9 games and is 5-4 (56% ATS).

GB+1.5 @ NO Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, following a blowout (a win by 21 or more points) the Packers are 7-12 (37% ATS).

HOU-1.5 @ TEN All-time, the Texans as road favorites are 9-13-2 (41% ATS).

IND-3 @ PIT Andrew Luck as a road favorite is 6-1-1 (86% ATS).

JAX+5.5 vs. MIA Since 2011, the Jaguars following a win are 2-8 (20% ATS).

KC-7 vs. STL Since 2004, the Chiefs as home favorites of 3 or more points are 12-22-1 (35% ATS).

MIA-5.5 @ JAX In the Ryan Tannehill era, the Dolphins are 1-4 (20% ATS) as a road favorite. Miami has never been this big of a road favorite with Tannehill.

MIN+3 @ TB In the Vikings last 10 trips to Tampa Bay dating back to 1994, Minnesota is 2-8 (20% ATS).

NE-6 vs. CHI Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots following a Thursday night game are 5-2 (71% ATS).

NO-1.5 vs. GB Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints as home favorites are 36-25-2 (59% ATS).

NYJ-3 vs. BUF All-time, teams on a six game losing streak and are favorites are 13-22-1 (37% ATS).

OAK+7 @ CLE All-time, teams that start the season 0-6 and go on the road are 1-22 (4%) straight-up.

PHI+2.5 @ AZ All-time, teams that started the season 5-1 and are on the road are 25-39-1 (39% ATS).

PIT+3 vs. IND Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers following a Monday Night Game are 4-8-1 (33% ATS).

SD+7.5 @ DEN Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs of 7 or more points are 7-1-1 (88% ATS).

SEA-5 @ CAR Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks on the road are 12-7-2 (63% ATS).

STL+7 @ KC Since 1995, when the Rams moved to St. Louis, the team is 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 ATS vs. the Chiefs.

TB-3 vs. MIN All-time, the Buccaneers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 53-65-5 (45% ATS).

TEN+1.5 vs. HOU All-time, the Titans as home dogs are 54-41-3 (57% ATS).

WAS+9.5 @ DAL Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Redskins are 12-4 (75% ATS) when playing the Cowboys.

CHARGERS VS BRONCOS TNF WEEK 8 ODDS

The San Diego Chargers managed to pay out on the NFL betting lines in two of their three games against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos last season as those division rivals hit the gridiron together on Thursday Night Football.

San Diego and Denver split their regular-season meetings 1-1 both SU and ATS last season, then the Broncos topped the Chargers 24-17 but couldn't cover a 7.5-point spread in their postseason matchup. The UNDER was 3-0 in those three Broncos vs. Chargers games last season, and the teams are a combined 10-3 SU (8-5 ATS) and battling for the AFC West division title this year.

San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos Opening Odds and Betting Line

Sportsbooks had set the Denver Broncos as -6.5-point favorites on the opening line for this contest. The total was hovering around 50.5 earlier in the week.

San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos Odds and Stats.

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Denver bring a 5-1 record (3-3 ATS) to the Week 8 betting matchup against the 5-2 San Diego Chargers, who are 5-2 ATS against the spread. Over under betting has seen Denver go 4-2 so far and the Chargers go 3-4. 

How San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos Stats Matchup

The game also pits Denver's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 31.5 PPG, against a Chargers defense that ranks No. 3 this week at 16.29 PPG. The Broncos aerial game is averaging 298.83 yards per game, more than the Chargers secondary allows through the air, 209.43 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the San Diego Chargers own the league's No. 14-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 103.33 yards per game when on the road. Denver, on the other hand, rates No. 23 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Philip Rivers passed for 2 touchdowns in his team's last game, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Chiefs, who won 23-20 on Sunday.

Last time out, Peyton Manning threw for 4 scores and 318 yards in leading his team past San Francisco at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos Betting Odds Trends

San Diego is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
San Diego is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home

#WASHED

Kobe Bryant's problem is that he's old and the Lakers are bad

article via Mike Foss

Kobe Bryant has built a reputation as a champion over 19 years in the NBA. Winning is usually a good thing. We like winners. Many don’t consider what goes into success, and simply celebrate the end product. You never want to see how the sausage gets made.

It’s in the sausage-making process we find an ESPN The Magazine story penned by Henry Abbott that says while Kobe Bryant is perhaps the greatest Laker in history, he’s also the team’s greatest liability.

The Lakers went 27-55 during the 2013-14 season. Dwight Howard left prior to the start of last season. Pau Gasol and Kendall Marshall left after it. Unnamed agents and league sources provided Abbott disparaging quotes about Bryant like: “Kobe is like the big rock in their front yard. You can’t mow over it, so you just have to mow around it.”

The common denominator found in all of the Lakers’ struggles and personnel issues is Kobe, Abbott notes. It’s true. Bryant has been a Laker for 19 years and is the most prominent member of a laughable team. If longevity is a crime, Bryant is guilty.

Another common denominator in Los Angeles is that the Lakers insist on wearing purple and gold still. No league sources commented on whether that antiquated color scheme should share some of the blame for the Lakers’ problems.

(USA TODAY Sports)
Bryant may very well be a terrible teammate and a plague upon the Lakers. But if that’s the case, it’s not like he woke up one morning and decided that this would be the day he was going to systematically ravage the most storied franchise in the NBA. Kobe Bryant has always been Kobe Bryant.

The difference is, Kobe Bryant hasn’t always been 36, and the Lakers haven’t always been in the cellar.

A younger Kobe won five NBA championships in the 2000s. A younger Kobe was an NBA MVP, a two-time Olympic gold medalist, and reached the postseason 16 times in 17 years. He might have been just as mean then, but he won and it was fun to watch.

Now, Bryant is old. The Lakers are bad. It isn’t fun anymore. The same things that made Kobe successful are the same things he’s being faulted for now.

Unfortunately for Kobe, he didn’t get out in time..